The Digital Hub eZine

Editorial

Predicting the future is always a source of amusement for the future generations to whom the predictions are aimed. One need only look at the flashing buttons, irritating ‘bleeping’ sounds and laughable fashion choices on the early Star Trek series to see how visions of the future are often just extended visions of the present. However, one movie that is worth seeing for its potential insights into the future is Stephen Spielberg’s Minority Report.

Collin Farrell looks down at the Pre-Cogs in Minority Report.

Aside from the central premise – based on Philip K. Dick’s dystopian view of the future whereby crimes are solved before they happen by “Pre-Cogs” who have developed Extra Sensory Perception – the overall vision of Washington D.C. in 2054 maybe frighteningly accurate going by a new report commissioned by the Pew Internet & American Life Project.

The Pew Internet & American Life Project (www.pewinternet.org) produces reports that explore the impact of the Internet on families, communities, work and home, daily life, education, health care, and civic and political life in the US. It is an extremely well-funded project which “aims to be an authoritative source on the evolution of the Internet through collection of data and analysis of real-world developments as they affect the virtual world.” As such it is an extremely interesting source of information for anyone interested in digital media technology and content and where the future trends lie.

In their latest study, they have surveyed 742 top technology thinkers and stakeholders and gave them a series of “future scenarios” involving the internet and digital technologies to comment on in order to get a consensus on the future. The result shows that the majority believe the internet will continue to spread in a “flattening” and improving world. There are many, though, who think major problems will accompany technology advances by 2020. The database of responses is quite interesting:

A low-cost global network will be thriving and creating new opportunities in a “flattening” world.
Humans will remain in charge of technology, even as more activity is automated and “smart agents” proliferate. However, a significant 42% of survey respondents were pessimistic about humans’ ability to control the technology in the future. This significant majority agreed that dangers and dependencies will grow beyond our ability to stay in charge of technology. This was one of the major surprises in the survey.
Virtual reality will be compelling enough to enhance worker productivity and also spawn new addiction problems.
Tech “refuseniks” will emerge as a cultural group characterised by their choice to live off the network. Some will do this as a benign way to limit information overload, while others will commit acts of violence and terror against technology-inspired change.
People will wittingly and unwittingly disclose more about themselves, gaining some benefits in the process even as they lose some privacy.
English will be a universal language of global communications, but other languages will not be displaced. Indeed, many felt other languages such as Mandarin, would grow in prominence.

The most contentious issues were around the belief that governments and corporations will not necessarily embrace policies that will allow the network to spread to under-served populations; that serious social inequalities will persist and that “addiction” is an inappropriate notion to attach to people’s interest in virtual environments.

Also the experts were evenly split on a central question as to whether the world will be a better place in 2020 due to the greater transparency of people and institutions afforded by the internet: 46% agreed that the benefits of greater transparency of organisations and individuals would outweigh the privacy costs and 49% disagreed.

To read the full report go to: http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Future_of_Internet_2006.pdf

The survey was done in collaboration with Elon University in North Carolina who also have another predictions database which looks at the next 150 years in terms of technologies and scientific progress. Sound like the stuff of science fiction? You decide:

2010-2014: Ubiquitous RFID tied to GPS. Super supercomputers. Intelligent materials.

2015: Genetic profiling. Human cloning. Autopilot vehicles. Adaptable materials.

2016-2025: VR immersion. Ubiquitous robots. Emotion-control devices. Paint-on power.

2026-2045: Biostasis in space. Space elevator. Moon base. A "singularity" due to accelerating change.

2046-2150: Mars colony. Time travel. Brain downloading. Humans assimilated into the internet.

Courtesy of Elon University http://www.elon.edu/predictions/default.html

What is Web 2.0?

In last months issue of The Hub we discussed the problem of broadband uptake in Ireland and how this was linked to the general public being unaware of much of the content that is available on the web and how it is more effectively accessed through a broadband connection. Aside from the plethora of rich media content available such as on www.youtube.com or www.atomfilms.com, there is also access to streamed media such as radio and television on www.rte.ie or www.bbc.co.uk. But in many ways these services are just an extension of the offline broadcast media. Yes, they are searchable – and to that extent offer something of a personalised service –but in reality, they are just another vehicle of the one to many broadcast model.

Since the first TCP/IP wide area network went operational on 1 January 1983 (effectively the first iteration of the internet), the majority of sites on the web could be categorised as being nothing more then “broadcasts” or online flyers. They offer static information, updated sporadically with a limited amount of interactivity in the form of email response. Even today, this holds largely true for the majority of corporate websites – whether it is a Hotel in Killarney or the National Broadcaster.
However, this is beginning to change. The Web is going through an upgrade - hence the phrase Web 2.0.

Web 2.0, a phrase coined by Tim O’Reilly of O'Reilly Media in 2004, refers to a supposed second-generation of Internet-based services — such as social networking sites, wikis, communication tools, and folksonomies — that let people collaborate and share information online in previously unavailable ways. O’Reilly was using a common software labelling term – whereby variations of software upgrades during beta would be given version numbers such as 1.0, 1.1,2.0 etc. In this sense, he was inferring that the web up until now was Web 1.0. So what features does this next generation of web sites have?

In their first conference opening talk, Tim O'Reilly and John Battelle (author of the amazingly insightful book The Search) summarized key principles they believed characterised Web 2.0 applications as follows:

the Web as platform
data as the driving force
network effects created by an architecture of participation
innovation in assembly of systems and sites composed by pulling together features from distributed, independent developers (a kind of "open source" development)
lightweight business models enabled by content and service syndication
the end of the software adoption cycle ("the perpetual beta")
software above the level of a single device, leveraging the power of The Long Tail.

So what are some of the main Web 2.0 applications that are driving this new web revolution?

O'Reilly gives examples in his description of his "four plus one" levels in the hierarchy of Web 2.0-ness: [Tim O'Reilly (2006-07-17). Levels of the Game: The Hierarchy of Web 2.0 Applications. O'Reilly radar.]

Level-3 applications: These are the most "Web 2.0" and are applications which are entirely enabled by the Internet, utilising human connections and the network and growing in effectiveness the more people use them. In many ways, these are the “killer apps” which are disrupting a lot of traditional businesses and have grown exponentially due to their user-base. Examples of these are: eBay.com, craigslist.com, Wikipedia.org, del.icio.us, Skype, dodgeball, and Adsense.

Level-2 applications: According to O’Reilly these are digital applications which can operate offline but which are further enabled by going online. Examples include: Flickr, which benefits from its shared photo-database and from its community-generated tag database.

Level-1 applications: These are also available offline but which gain features online, but not perhaps to the same extent as Level 2. In a sense, the majority of their features are used in an offline capacity – much like standard software applications. Examples include: Writely (gaining group-editing capability online) and iTunes (because of its music-store portion).

Level-0 applications would work as well offline. O'Reilly gave the examples of MapQuest, Yahoo! Local, and Google Maps. Mapping applications using contributions from users to advantage can rank as level 2.

Finally, there are the non-web applications like email, instant-messaging clients and the telephone.

The most notable of the Web 2.0 sites are arguably the Social Networking sites which are getting much of the press attention and remarkable valuations at the moment. The star in the firmament, thanks to Rupert Murdoch’s purchase of it for $580 million, is www.myspace.com which boasts over 100 million subscribers – and in some ways rivals many Murdoch’s own Fox Network in terms of eyeballs. But there are other contenders in the shape of www.facebook.com and www.bebo.com. These sites provide users with simple tools to create blogs, upload pictures, audio and video and connect with one another in away that was never possible before on the web. What has media moguls eyeing them is the potential for advertising sales. Already, myspace.com has made back its asking price and some by selling the advertising rights to myspace.com for $900 million to Google.

Google itself has developed a number of Web 2.0 applications out of its labs – with Google Earth and Google Sketch Up, for example. Both applications would rank as Level 0 by O’Reilly’s grading – in that they also work as offline applications- but that doesn’t mean that their online capabilities are not of immense interest. Google Sketch Up is a simple tool for creating 3D shapes – such as buildings or objects. The toolset allows a limited amount of textures and colouring giving the user a basic 3D Studio Max type application. Helpfully, you can also import other 3D files from 3D Studio Max, CAD or other 3-D packages. Thus, if you import your house plans, you can also import a range of products from Ikea and see how they look in your virtual home. When you are happy, you then can upload it to Google Earth and let people see your virtual home in geographic context. So you can see how a Web 2.0 application may well start a virtual community.

Well, in fact, that has already happened with www.secondlife.com. Second Life is a 3-D virtual world entirely built and owned by its residents. Since opening to the public in 2003, it has grown explosively and today is inhabited by 342,944 people from around the globe. From the moment you enter the World you'll discover a vast digital continent, teeming with people looking to talk and entertainment of every variety.

Once you've explored a bit, you may even find a perfect parcel of land to build your house or business (import it from Google Sketch Up, if you want!). You'll also be surrounded by the Creations of your fellow residents. Because residents retain the rights to their digital creations, they can buy, sell and trade with other residents.

The Marketplace currently supports millions of US dollars in monthly transactions. This commerce is handled with the in-world currency, the Linden dollar, which can be converted to US dollars at several thriving online currency exchanges.

For many veterans of the Dot Com bubble of the late nineties, there is an element of déjà vu about all of this. Web Portals, social networks, distributed applications and virtual reality were among the many business plans scribbled on the back of napkins in Starbucks. But the difference this time around is simple: broadband. Now the bandwidth is there for always on, rich media content and that’s what makes Web 2.0 so exciting.

Here are a few more sites to whet your appetite:

www.odeo.com	Odeo allows users to record and share audio using simple, browser-based tools. A browser with Flash installed, an internet connection and a microphone are all you need to start podcasting.
www.netvibes.com	An aggregation tool that lets each user create a personalised page that pulls news feeds and data from web services into modular boxes. The boxes update automatically, and their display options are totally customisable.

News

Sept. 23rd - 24th: World Cyber Games

The Digital Hub hosted the Irish final of the World Cyber Games on 23rd/24th September 2006. This was the first time a team was selected to represent Ireland at the grand final, which will take place this October in Monza, Italyr.

The public were invited to view the proceedings on in Digital Exchange, Crane Street, The Digital Hub, Dublin 8, and at this 24 hour event over 100 contestants battled it out to represent Ireland at the grand final of World Cyber Games, which will be held on 18th to 22nd of October in Monza, Italy.

Further information: www.worldcybergamesireland.com

The Digital Hub Development Plan

In accordance with Section 9 of the Digital Hub Development Agency Act 2003, Digital Hub Development Agency (DHDA) has published a Draft Development Plan. The plan is the result is of an extensive consultation process with our community, public sector and private sector partners.

Submissions to the plan were accepted until Monday, 28th August 2006, however if you still wish to request a copy of the plan please email info@thedigitalhub.com

All submissions will shortly be considered by the Community, Public, Private Partnership (CPPP) Steering Group, which has been appointed by the Board of DHDA to ensure full consultation.

Events

Oct. 5th: Exploiting business opportunities on the internet
Location: Seven Oaks Hotel, Carlow.
Time: 2pm
Price: EUR20

The Irish Internet Association and Carlow County Enterprise Board are hosting this half day seminar. Having a website is only the first step in making a return on your online investment. Websites have to be content driven, user friendly and generate sales (or leads) to make it a business reality. The seminar will looks at ways to sell products online, via your own website or sites like eBay. This seminar is aimed at small business owners, their employees, IT providers and marketing managers who have a web presence but have never had the time, resources or knowledge to make the internet work for their businesses.

More info: events@iia.ie Tel: (059) 9130880 Fax: (059) 9130717
http://www.iia.ie/events.asp?eventid=96

Oct. 5th: Online Effectiveness Seminar
Location: Crawdaddy, POD, Harcourt Street, Dublin 2.
Time: 2pm
Price: EUR15 Members, EUR25 Non Members

Sales Online, in association with the Marketing Institute, are running a series of executive briefings, the first in Crawdaddy. The event series is an opportunity for those in the advertising and marketing fields to receive an update on developments in the digital marketing world from some of the industry's leading international execs. The first half day event covers Video Ads on the internet, best practice tools for tracking effectiveness and the latest in audience research. Companies featured include international research company Comscore Media Metrix, Yahoo, Brandmail Solutions, Flashtalking and many more.

More info: mtc@mii.ie Tel: 01 295 2355 Fax: 01 295 2453
http://www.mii.ie/?id=35&eventID=441

Oct. 10th: eBay University
Location: University of Limerick: Limerick:
Price: EUR25 per person, including refreshments
Time: 18:30

eBay will host the 'eBay University'-- a one-evening training course offering top tips and 'how to sell' seminars for successful trading, providing insightful recommendations on how to make money on eBay.ie. Whether you are a first-time seller or more experienced trader looking to earn a little extra pocket money or pay the rent, eBay University sharpens your selling skills and allows you to share tips with other eBayers to make your eBay.ie experience even more successful and profitable.

More info: http://www.ebay-events.ie

Oct. 12th: eSymposium, the Internet Tourism Conference for the island of Ireland
Location: Hogan Suite, Croke Park Stadium, Dublin.
Time: 9am
Price: EUR95; STG65 (reduced for bookings before 22nd Sep see website)

Tourism Ireland will host a unique one-day eSymposium designed to help everyone involved with the tourism industry maximise the impact of the internet and the latest eMarketing techniques. The programme will consist of thought provoking presentations on the following themes: Insight - Evolution of the eTraveller in the Global Marketplace; eMarketing - Strategies and Emerging Media Landscapes; eDistribution - Selling Inventory Online; Maximising your Potential on the Internet. Includes lunch and a USB stick with the speakers' presentations.

More info: esymposium@creativeevents.com Tel:+353 (0)1 476 3416 https://ssl.utvinternet.com/esymposium/register.htm

Oct. 19th: TIF Annual Conference - Telecoms Convergence & Infotainment
Location: The Mansion House, Dawson St, Dublin 2.
Time: 11:30
Price: EUR350 (ex VAT), EUR250 for add. bookings

This year's Telecommunications & Internet Federation annual conference takes the theme of telecoms convergence and the growth in infotainment. Speakers include Mr Noel Dempsey, TD, Minister for Communications, Marine and Natural Resources; Pierre Danon, Executive Chairman, eircom/Babcock & Brown; Sir Christopher Bland, Chairman, BT Group UK; Ken Peterson, Executive Chairman, Magnet Networks Ltd; John Killian, Head of International Business, Verizon USA and Mike Quigley, COO, Alcatel Group France. National speakers include Delia Bushell, Managing Director, Sky Ireland; Shane O'Neill, Director of Strategy, Liberty Global & Chairman of UPC Ireland; Danuta Gray, Chief Executive, O2 Ireland and Teresa Elder, Chief Executive, Vodafone Ireland Ltd.

More info: carolyn.doumeni@ibec.ie
Tel.: +353 (0)1 605 1528 Fax: +353 (0)1 6381528 http://www.tif.ie/ibec/Events.nsf

Oct 26th: Internet Marketing for 21st Century Businesses
Location: Castletroy Park Hotel, Limerick.
Time: 9am - 1pm
Price: EUR265

How to design and build an effective internet marketing campaign for sales lead generation. This morning seminar will describe and demonstrate in non-technical terms the latest and most effective online techniques for building a qualified sales pipeline for any business - national and international. Aimed at senior marketing and sales personnel, small business owner-managers and individual professionals.

More info from: seminars@praxisnow.ie Tel: 0868103183 http://www.praxisnow.ie/seminarsLimerick.html

Nov. 2nd: Internet Marketing for 21st Century Businesses
Location: Corrib Great Southern Hotel, Galway.
Time: 9am - 1pm
Price: EUR265